| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a predicting method for predicting a result value at a time t0 with respect to a prediction problem while considering the differences of respective answerers' predictabilities by using a system having a plurality of terminals with which the respective answerers input answers and a server connected to the terminals through a network. SOLUTION: The server has a predicability value Wh in each answerer h. As the first step, the server notifies all the terminals of the prediction problem at a time t1 ahead of the time t0, and the terminals display the prediction problem X to the answers and notify the server of estimated values Xh inputted by the answerers. As the second step, the server updates the predicability value Wh on the basis of the difference between the estimated value Xh and a result value (r) in each answerer h at the time t0 and repeats the 1st and 2nd steps. As the third step, the server derives a predicted value E on the basis of the predicability value Wh of each answerer in the case of deriving the predicted value. |
