WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH POST-PROCESSING

摘要

A method for calibrating forecasts involving temperature, precipitation, and other weather related variables is provided. In an embodiment historical ensemble-based forecasts and historical observations are received by an agricultural intelligence computing system. Historical differences are determined between the forecasts and the observations corresponding to the forecasts and stored in the volatile memory of the agricultural intelligence computing system. The agricultural intelligence computing system receives current ensemble-based forecasts and a request for improved forecasts. The agricultural intelligence computing system retrieves the historical differences and uses a combination of the historical differences and the current ensemble-based forecasts to create probability distributions for the weather for each lead day. The agricultural intelligence computing system then samples from the probability distributions to create improved ensemble-based forecasts at the requested location.

主权项

1. A method comprising:
receiving over a computer network and storing in an ensemble database, electronic digital data representing a plurality of historical ensemble-based weather forecasts corresponding to one or more years of weather forecasts, each of the forecasts comprising a plurality of historical ensemble members; receiving, over the computer network, a plurality of historical weather observations and storing the plurality of historical weather observations with the plurality of historical ensemble-based weather forecasts; using a data analysis module, determining a plurality of historical difference parameters representing differences between the historical ensemble-based weather forecasts and the corresponding historical weather observations; receiving, over the computer network, a plurality of raw ensemble-based weather forecasts comprising a plurality of raw ensemble members; using a data extraction module, determining a series of correlations from the plurality of raw ensemble-based weather forecasts and storing the series of correlations in computer memory; using a distribution calibration module, creating and storing one or more distributions from the plurality of raw ensemble members, and applying the plurality of historical difference parameters to modify the one or more distributions to create one or more improved distributions; using a reconstruction calibration module, creating improved ensemble members from the one or more improved distributions and the series of correlations and creating improved ensemble-based weather forecasts from the improved ensemble members from the improved ensemble members; wherein the method is performed by one or more computing devices.