ORDER-VOLUME DETERMINATION DEVICE, ORDER-VOLUME DETERMINATION METHOD, RECORDING MEDIUM, AND ORDER-VOLUME DETERMINATION SYSTEM

摘要

This invention discloses an order-volume determination device that determines an appropriate order volume. A component determination unit (91) determines a component to use in a shipment-volume prediction on the basis of the following: a hierarchical hidden structure in which hidden variables are represented by a tree structure and components representing probability models are assigned to the nodes at the lowest level of said tree structure; a gate function that determines the direction in which to branch at each node of the aforementioned hierarchical hidden structure; and prediction data. On the basis of the determined component and the prediction data, a shipment-volume prediction unit (92) computes a predicted shipment volume for a product between the present time and a second point in time that is after a first point in time. An order-volume determination unit determines (93) an order volume for said product by adding or subtracting an amount corresponding to the prediction-error spread of the determined component to or from an amount obtained by subtracting, from the predicted shipment volume for the product between the present time and the abovementioned second point in time, the current inventory of the product and the amount of the product that will be received between the present time and the abovementioned first point in time.

主权项

1. An order-volume determination device determining an order-volume of a product accepted into a store at a first timing, the device comprising:
a component determination unit configured to select a specific component for predicting a shipment-volume of the product on the basis of a hierarchical latent structure including components representing a probability model, gating functions serving as a criterion for selecting a path to select the specific component in the hierarchical structure and prediction information expected to influence the shipment-volume; a shipment-volume prediction unit configured to evaluate the shipment-volume of the product during a period between a specific timing and a second timing that is after the first timing on the basis of the specific component and the prediction information; and an order-volume determination unit configured to determine the order-volume on the basis of the shipment-volume, an inventory of the product at the specific timing, an acceptance-volume of the product during a period between the specific timing and the first timing, and a prediction-error spread of the specific component.