Evaluation method and evaluation device for water breakthrough risk of production wells in aquifer drive gas reservoirs

摘要

The present invention provides an evaluation method and an evaluation device for water breakthrough risk of gas wells in gas reservoirs with aquifers, the method comprising the following steps: building evaluation factors that influence water breakthrough risk of gas wells in gas reservoirs with aquifers S101; acquiring weight vectors of the evaluation factors based on an analytic hierarchy process S102; building a fuzzy relationship matrix between the water breakthrough risk of gas wells in gas reservoirs with aquifers and its evaluation factors S103; and synthesizing the fuzzy relationship matrix and the weight vectors according to a weighted average fuzzy synthesis operator, to acquire a comprehensive evaluation result of water breakthrough risk of gas wells in gas reservoirs with aquifers S104. The present invention improves the accuracy of the evaluation result of water breakthrough risk of the gas wells, and is able to obtain an evaluation result that is more consistent with the case of actual water breakthrough of gas wells in gas reservoirs with aquifers.