How to model risk on your farm

摘要

This is an invention implying a system and method to construct synthetic data of said financial variables i.e., prices and quantities and to construct sophisticated econometric models that achieve convergence with related estimations already published. These system and method is abled to run under different risk scenarios and input settings; they also allow lower costs by simulating time frequencies, variables and factors of economic activity, through the use of random number machines and Monte Carlo simulations. This invention furnishes risk sensitivities based on sophisticated econometric models and mathematical not lineal models and a set of behavioral and statistic assumptions by using the synthetic data herein constructed. Great results in providing criteria for risk management and decision making with 99% of statistical significance. Modifications of this invention can generate a multiplicity of applications by those skilled in the art. Thus, the input problem treated should be taken as illustrative and not restrictive.

主权项

1. A system and method for constructing and computing synthetic data said prices and quantities of financial variables that mimic raw financial variables which are identify with a certain process or problematic as a computer output using the descriptive statistics of the corresponding related published raw data and/or real data allowing lower costs by simulating time frequencies, variables and factors of economic activity through the use of random number machines and Monte Carlo simulations, comprising: illustration of a flow chart of a method for an embodiment to construct and compute synthetic said prices and quantities of financial variables that mimic raw financial variables as a computer output using the descriptive statistics of the corresponding related published raw data; a manual which contains the behavioral and statistic assumptions needed to construct and compute synthetic said prices and quantities of financial variables that mimic raw financial variables as a computer output using the descriptive statistics of the corresponding related published raw data and/or real data through the use of random number machines and/or Monte Carlo simulations;