ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION RATE OF RESERVOIR USING MULTI-OBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM AND REAL OPTION

摘要

According to one embodiment of the present invention, a method for evaluating productivity of a reservoir comprises the steps of: (a) applying a multi-purpose genetic algorithm to initial data on a reservoir and data on a production history, and generating m number of reservoir models (m is an integer equal to or more than 2); (b) calculating predicting results of m number of resource productivity according to time by using each of the reservoir models; (c) for each of k number of scenarios (k is an integer equal to or more than 2) about whether additional oil well drilling within the reservoir is performed or not, calculating a net present valuation (NPV) on the basis of each of the m number of production predicting results; (d) calculating a variability () on the basis of the calculated NPV; and (e) for each of the k number of scenarios, calculating a current value (C) of real options.