Power Grid Development Stage Division Method Based on Logistic Model

摘要

A power grid development stage division method based on Logistic model. The method uses per capita household power consumption as the primary characteristic value in power grid development according to correlation analysis results and deduces a power grid development stage division theory that power grid development generally goes through a primary stage, a fast-growing stage, a posterior stage and an equilibrated stage on the basis of the Logistic model. s The provided power grid development stage division method offers decision references to planning, construction, operation and maintenance of power grid and is of great significance in timely switching work priorities, sticking to work trend and ensuring sustainable development during power grid development.

主权项

1. A power grid development stage division method based on Logistic model, wherein the power grid development stage division method analyzes power grid development trend based on the Logistic model by regression,
The formula of the Logistic model is:y=c1+a-bt,where the function of variable y with regard to time t is called as Logistic function; c is a function saturation value; a is a parameter correlated to an initial value; b is a growth parameter, and e is a growth parameter and e is a natural constant.
Determine three characteristic points and time nodes of the power grid development stages, and indicate time values T1, T2 and T3 corresponding to the characteristic points by:{T1=a-1.317b+t0T2=ab+t0T3=a+1.317b+t0,where a is a parameter correlated to the initial value; b is the growth parameter, and t0 is a cardinal time node number.
According to the primary stage, the fast-growing stage, the posterior stage and the equilibrated stage of the power grid development stage divided based on the Logistic model, the primary stage starts and ends from −∞ to T1, the fast-growing stage from T1 to T2, the posterior stage from T2 to T3, and the equilibrated stage from T3 to +∞. Use per capita household power consumption as a main fitted characteristic vector of regression analysis of the power grid and per capita transformer capacity as an alternative main characteristic vector.e=yt+1-ytgt+1-gt·gtyt=Δyt/ytΔgt/gt.