RISK EVALUATION

摘要

For risk evaluation, a method encodes event data as a linear array that includes a plurality of logic states. The method estimates a success probability for each logic state and identifies path groups of the plurality of logic states. The logic states of each path group must all be healthy for each logic state to contribute to system success. The method further identifies each path combination of path groups and path nodes that result in system success. In addition, the method calculates a system success probability as a sum of success probabilities for each path combination. The success rate for each path combination is calculated as a product of the path group success probabilities for the path combination.

主权项

1. A method comprising:
encoding, by use of a processor, event data as a linear array comprising a plurality of logic states, wherein each logic state represents a path between events of the event data, each logic state comprising one or more binary output variables, one or more binary input variables, one or more minterms of the one or more binary input variables, one or more maxterms of the one or more minterms, one or more present state values, and one or more next state values; estimating a success probability for each logic state; identifying path groups of the plurality of logic states, wherein the logic states of each path group must all be healthy for each logic state to contribute to system success; identifying path nodes wherein equivalent contributions to system success are provided by two or more path groups; identifying each path combination of path groups and path nodes that result in system success; and calculating a system success probability as a sum of success probabilities for each path combination, wherein the success rate for each path combination is calculated as a product of the path group success probabilities for the path combination.