PERFORMANCE PREDICTION METHOD, PERFORMANCE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND PROGRAM

摘要

A performance prediction method, performance prediction system and program for predicting a performance of a monitoring target system including processing devices. A plurality of types of measurement values are acquired from the monitoring target system at regular intervals. A value at a future time of a reference index which is a portion of the measurement values is predicted, and the probability, based on a probability model, that a target event will be generated is calculated, the target event being an event in which a specific measurement value, which is different from the reference index at the future time, lies within the specific range, with the value of the reference index regarded as a prerequisite. An operation results value of the monitoring target system is included in the measurement values and an operation plan value of the monitoring target system is included in the reference index, which is time-series predicted.

主权项

1. A performance prediction method for predicting a performance of a monitoring target system including one or more information processing devices, comprising:
a first step of acquiring a plurality types of measurement values from the monitoring target system at regular intervals; a second step of generating a probability model for calculating a probability that the measurement values respectively lying within a specific value range; a third step of predicting a value at a future time of a reference index which is a portion of the measurement values; and a fourth step of calculating a probability on which a target event will occur, based on the probability model, the target event being an event in which a specific measurement value, which is different from the reference index at the future time, lies within the specific range, with the value of the reference index regarded as a prerequisite, wherein an operation results value of the monitoring target system is included in the measurement values of the second step, wherein an operation plan value of the monitoring target system is included in the reference index of the third step, and wherein the reference index is time-series predicted in the third step.