| 摘要 |
A method of estimating flows of persons gathering at an Area of Interest (107) for attending a public happening during a time interval on a day is proposed. Said Area of Interest (107) is defined by an Area of Interest center and an Area of Interest radius and is covered by a mobile telecommunication network (105) having a plurality of communication stations (105a) each of which adapted to manage communications of user equipment in one or more served areas (105b) in which the mobile telecommunication network (105) is subdivided. The method comprises the steps of: a) defining a plurality of calculated radius values of the Area of interest radius, and, for each calculated radius value: b) identifying (1006) a number of relevant served areas (405a-d) among the served areas (105b) comprised in the Area of Interest (107); c) identifying (1010, 1012) a first number of user equipment associated with at least one event record of a corresponding event of interaction occurred between the user equipment and the mobile communication network (105) during the time interval on the day of the public happening within the Area of Interest (107); d) identifying (1014, 1016) a second number of user equipment associated with at least one event record of a corresponding event of interaction occurred between the user equipment and the mobile communication network (105) during the time interval for each one of a predetermined number of previous days preceding the day of the public happening within the Area of Interest (107); e) combining (1018, 1020) the first number of user equipments and the second numbers of user equipments for obtaining a statistical quantity; f) computing (1022) a normalized statistical quantity by normalizing the statistical quantity with respect to the radii of the relevant served areas (405a-d); g) computing (1030) an optimum radius value of the Area of Interest radius as the average of the calculated radius values weighted by the normalized statistical quantity; h) identifying (1032-1060) persons gathering for attending the public happening within an Area of Interest having the Area of Interest radius equal to the optimum radius values during the time interval on the day within the Area of Interest (107) based on a first time fraction indicating a probability that the user equipment has been in the Area of Interest (107) during the time interval on the day and on a second time fraction indicating a probability that the user equipment has been in the Area of Interest (107) during the previous days for each user equipment identified at step b); i) computing (1062-1070) at least one matrix (700m) accounting for movements of persons identified at step h) within a Region of Interest (500) comprising the Area of Interest (107) to the Area of Interest (107) during at least one observation time period comprising the time interval. |
