Computer-implemented system and method for estimating power data for a photovoltaic power generation fleet

摘要

A computer-implemented system and method for estimating power data for a photovoltaic power generation fleet is provided. Solar irradiance data is assembled for locations representative of a geographic region. The data includes a time series of solar irradiance observations electronically recorded at successive time periods spaced at input time intervals. Each observation includes measured irradiance. The data in the time series is converted over each time period into clearness indexes relative to clear sky global horizontal irradiance and the clearness indexes are interpreted as irradiance statistics. Each location's irradiance statistics are combined into fleet irradiance statistics applicable over the geographic region. Fleet power statistics are built as a function of the fleet irradiance statistics and the fleet's power rating. A time series of the power statistics is generated by applying a time lag correlation coefficient for an output time interval to the power statistics over each input time interval.