| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To calculate a confidence interval with the certainty of a prediction value of solar radiation quantity accurately reflected.SOLUTION: A method includes: categorizing differential data which is the difference between a prediction value of the solar radiation quantity and an observation value thereof, and the prediction value of the solar radiation quantity, into at least any one of plural groups in accordance with the magnitude of the prediction value of the solar radiation quantity; obtaining a representative value of the solar radiation quantity in each group on the basis of the prediction value of the solar radiation quantity categorized into each group; obtaining an index value of variation of the differential data of each group on the basis of the differential data categorized into each group; acquiring a new prediction value of the solar radiation quantity; interpolating the index value of variation of the differential data of each group in accordance with a ratio of the new prediction value of the solar radiation quantity to the representative value of the solar radiation quantity of each group, thereby calculating a new index value of variation corresponding to the new prediction value of the solar radiation quantity; and calculating upper and lower limit values of a confidence interval for the new prediction value of solar radiation quantity on the basis of the new prediction value of the solar radiation quantity and the new index value of variation. |
