| 摘要 |
A method of estimating a number of persons gathering at an Area of Interest (107) for attending a public happening (S) during a time interval ([Ts; Te]) on a day (g) is proposed. Said Area of Interest (107) is defined by an Area of Interest center (C) and an Area of Interest radius (Ra) and is covered by a mobile telecommunication network (105) having a plurality of communication stations (105a) each of which adapted to manage communications of user equipment in one or more served areas (105b) in which the mobile telecommunication network (105) is subdivided. The method comprising the steps of: a) defining (504, 506, 524 - 528) a plurality of calculated radius values (Rk) of the Area of interest radius (Ra), and, for each calculated radius value (Rk): b) identifying (506) a number of relevant served areas (405a-d) among the served areas (105b) comprised in the Area of Interest (107); c) identifying (510, 512) a first number (Uk) of user equipment associated with at least one event record (er i ) of a corresponding event (e i ) of interaction occurred between the user equipment and the mobile communication network (105) during the time interval ([Ts; Te]) on the day (g) of the public happening within the Area of Interest (107); d) identifying (514, 516) a second number (Upk) of user equipment associated with at least one event record (er i ) of a corresponding event (e i ) of interaction occurred between the user equipment and the mobile communication network (105) during the time interval ([Ts; Te]) for each one of a predetermined number (P) of previous days (gp) preceding the day (g) of the public happening within the Area of Interest (107); e) combining (518, 520) the first number (Uk) of user equipment and the second numbers (Upk) of user equipment for obtaining a statistical quantity (Zk); f) computing a normalized statistical quantity (Z'k) by normalizing (522) the statistical quantity (Zk) with respect to a sum (Rtotk) of the radii of the relevant served areas (405a-d); g) computing (530) an optimum radius value (Ro) of the Area of Interest radius (Ra) as the average of the calculated radius values (Rk) weighted by the normalized statistical quantity (Z'k); h) counting (532-566) a number of persons gathering for attending at the public happening (S) within the area of interest having the Area of Interest radius (Ra) equal to the optimum radius value (Ro). |
