Prediction market system and methods

摘要

Systems and methods for operating a prediction market, including methods for finding disagreement with the consensus among participants and methods for managing liquidity. Also, an interactive user interface to facilitate investing, with one user action, in a prediction market.

主权项

1. A prediction market system comprising:
a computer system comprising a server computer and at least one database in electronic, digital communication over a network, connectable or accessible remotely through the network by at least one other remote computing device, the server running a software providing: an automated market maker; a liquidity management system (LMS) with administrative controls for the market maker for sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window that adjust a liquidity value; an investment transaction graphical user interface (GUI) comprising an interactive slider interface with a slider control that allows one-step user selection to choose the amount of stock the user is to buy, sell or short-sell; wherein the interactive slider interface is operable to be displayed in the GUI upon selection of a trade button, wherein upon selection of the trade button the interactive slider interface overlays existing content in the GUI; wherein the investment transaction GUI permits buying, selling and short-selling stock with the same slider in a single action; wherein the slider action in a first direction indicates selling or short-selling and slider action in the opposite direction indicates buying; wherein the investment transaction GUI permits automated management of the LMS; wherein the automated market maker creates liquidity in the system by providing ongoing buy, sell and short-sell orders that are logarithmically spaced in a price ladder; and wherein the automated market maker automatically calculates and displays in the investment transaction GUI the amount of stock the user is to receive or sell in a prediction market; thereby providing a prediction market system that is intuitive and gives good predictions.