PREDICTION OF A CURTAILED CONSUMPTION OF FLUID

摘要

A computing system for predicting a curtailed consumption of fluid comprising: a module for collecting consumption data comprising information relating to an actual consumption of fluid of a plurality of consumers during a learning phase, a processing circuit for aggregating the consumption data collected by groups as a function of at least one determined descriptive variable associated with each consumer and contained in the consumption data, a processor for determining on the basis of the aggregated consumption data a curve of global load for each group, a computer for computing a model of extraction of a load curve, termed heating and/or air conditioning, on the basis of each global load curve and of meteorological data, and a predictor for computing a prediction of a curtailed consumption of fluid for each group during a forthcoming curtailment phase.

主权项

1. A method of predicting a curtailed fluid consumption, implemented by computer means, including the following steps:
collecting consumption data including information relating to a real fluid consumption of a plurality of consumers during a learning phase, aggregating the collected consumption data on a group basis as a function of at least one particular descriptive variable associated with each consumer and contained in the consumption data, determining from the aggregated consumption data a global load curve for each group relating to the fluid consumption of each group during the learning phase, calculating an extraction model of a heating and/or air conditioning load curve relating to the fluid consumption for heating and/or air conditioning of each of the groups from each global load curve and weather data containing at least information relating to the weather conditions for each group during said learning phase, and predicting a curtailed fluid consumption for each group for a future curtailment phase as a function of each heating and/or air conditioning load curve estimated by the extraction model and a consumption data history.