| 摘要 |
Section 0: The system allows the user to gauge the likelihood of loan default across an entire economy or within a portion of an economy such as a region or an industry. The core of the system is a methodology for forecasting bankruptcy rates1. Via the methodology described in this document, it is possible to forecast bankruptcy rates 5 or more quarters hence. Knowledge of future bankruptcy rates would allow a creditor to make profitable adjustments in its loan granting, loan monitoring and loan collection practices. The canadian version of the product is ready for sale. US and UK versions are in progress and versions for other industrialized countries are planned. Eventually, the set of country-systems will constitute a super-system usable for the purpose of global credit-risk management. 1 Throughout this document the term "bankruptcy" will be used to describe the case of either de jure bankruptcy or the pre-bankruptcy period of restructuring permitted under the June, 1992 revision to canadian bankruptcy legislation. In either of these circumstances, the creditor is at considerable risk.
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