There is an association between enteroviruses and type 1 diabetes (T1D). The present invention is based on the finding that particular enterovirus serotypes are T1D risk serotypes, while others are protective against the disease. The present invention relates to a diagnostic assay for type 1 diabetes (T1D), and especially to an assay for predicting the risk of contracting the disease. It also relates to a method of monitoring the efficacy of antiviral treatments aiming at prevention of T1D. The invention still further relates to a diagnostic kit.