PREDICTION DEVICE, PREDICTION METHOD, AND PREDICTION PROGRAM

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a prediction device, a prediction method and a prediction program capable of predicting a prediction object while suppressing decrease of prediction accuracy due to multicollinearity.SOLUTION: A storage unit 22 stores learning data 30 in which an actual value of the weather condition at a plurality of points as an actual value of a plurality of explanatory variables of a regression equation predicting a prediction object from the plurality of explanatory variables and an actual value of the prediction object are stored. A calculation unit 41 calculates a regression coefficient for minimizing the sum of a prediction error of a prediction value of the prediction object calculated by applying the actual value of the weather condition at the plurality of points stored in the learning data 30 with respect to the actual value of the prediction object and a penalty term becoming a bigger value as a regression coefficient of the regression equation is bigger. A prediction unit 42 performs prediction using the regression equation to which the calculated regression coefficient is applied.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3