SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR PREDICTING POWER PLANT OPERATIONAL PARAMETERS UTILIZING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK DEEP LEARNING METHODOLOGIES

摘要

A system and method of predicting future power plant operations is based upon an artificial neural network model including one or more hidden layers. The artificial neural network is developed (and trained) to build a model that is able to predict future time series values of a specific power plant operation parameter based on prior values. By accurately predicting the future values of the time series, power plant personnel are able to schedule future events in a cost-efficient, timely manner. The scheduled events may include providing an inventory of replacement parts, determining a proper number of turbines required to meet a predicted demand, determining the best time to perform maintenance on a turbine, etc. The inclusion of one or more hidden layers in the neural network model creates a prediction that is able to follow trends in the time series data, without overfitting.

主权项

1. A method of scheduling future power plant operations based on a set of time series data associated with a specific power plant operation, the method comprising:
selecting an artificial neural network model for use in evaluating the set of time series data, the selected artificial neural network model including at least one hidden layer between an input layer and an output layer, the input layer for receiving a set of time series datapoints and the output layer for generating one or more predicted time series values; initializing the selected artificial neural network model by defining a number of nodes to be included in each layer, an activation function for use in each neuron cell node in each layer, and a number of bias nodes to be included in each layer; training the selected artificial neural network model to develop an optimal set of weights for each signal propagating through the network model from the input layer to the output layer, and an optimal set of bias node values; defining the trained artificial neural network as a prediction model for the set of time series data under study; applying a newly-arrived set of time series data to the prediction model; generating one or more predicted time series data output values from the prediction model; and scheduling an associated operation event at the specific power plant based on the predicted time series data output values.