Method for measuring individual entities' infectivity and susceptibility in contagion

摘要

Measurements of individual-level infectivity, susceptibility and baseline infection risk to biological or social contagion and sensitivity to environmental factors are made for large number of entities from their contact relation, sequential infection occurrences and environmental factors, using computer implemented Markov Chain Monte Carlo and likelihood maximization for Bayesian estimations of an integrated latent trait response model. The method is useful for precise and efficient contagion control and prevention.

主权项

1. A computer implemented method for measuring infection traits of a plurality of individuals for a contagion, the method comprising:
receiving, contact information associated with contact between at least two individuals of the plurality of individuals, the contact information including at least one of a physical contact, a spatial proximity, a temporal proximity and a connection relationship; generating, based on the received contact information, a contact relation matrix, the contact relation matrix includes matrix element values for each pair of individuals of the plurality of individuals, wherein the matrix element value is a 1 when contact between the pair of individuals is the physical contact, the matrix element value is a weighted decimal value when contact between the pair of individuals is at least one of the spatial proximity, the temporal proximity, and the connection relationship, and the matrix element value is a 0 when there is no contact between the pair of individuals, the contact relation matrix being updated as new contact information is received; receiving, infection occurrence data for the contagion during an observation period for each of the plurality of individuals, the infection occurrence data including an infection status and a corresponding time of infection for each of the plurality of individuals; generating a sequenced list of infection occurrence in the plurality of individuals based on the infection occurrence data, the sequenced list being updated in as new infection occurrence data is received; receiving, environmental data associated with each of the plurality of individuals during the observational period; generating a set of parameter estimations for each individual of the plurality of individuals based on the contact relation matrix, the sequenced list of infection occurrence, and the environmental data, the set of parameter estimation being iteratively generated based on the updating of the contact relation matrix, the sequenced list of infection occurrence, and the environmental data; measuring infection traits for each individual of the plurality of individuals for a contagion based on the set of parameter estimations using an integrated latent trait response model, wherein the integrated latent trait response model changes in real time based on when the set of parameter estimations are iteratively generated; ranking, in real-time, each individual of the plurality of individuals based on their measured infection traits for the contagion, wherein the rank of at least one of the plurality of individuals changes when the integrated latent trait response model changes; based on the order of the ranked individuals, selecting at least one individual of the plurality of individuals, for further analysis; and generating a response plan based on additional information received from the at least one selected individual.