COMPUTER-BASED REPRESENTATION OF PRECIPITATION

摘要

A method for estimating precipitation values and associated uncertainties is provided. In an embodiment, precipitation records that indicate the occurrence and intensity of precipitation at specific locations are received by a weather computing system. The weather computing system uses the gauge information to separately create multiple realizations of precipitation occurrence fields and precipitation intensity fields. The weather computing system may model the occurrence of precipitation by proposing a value for each point independently and using the proposed value to update all prior proposals. The weather computing system may model the intensity of precipitation by modeling the spatial correlation of precipitation intensity and sampling from distributions at each location to determine the intensity of precipitation at each location. The weather computing system may then combine the precipitation intensity and occurrence fields into one or more final estimate fields.

主权项

1. A method comprising:
receiving, over a computer network, one or more digital precipitation records comprising a plurality of digital data values representing an occurrence of precipitation at a first plurality of locations and an intensity of precipitation at the first plurality of locations; using digitally programmed logic in an occurrence estimation module of a digital electronic weather computer, creating and storing in a precipitation database one or more precipitation occurrence fields by:
repeating the following steps for each location of a second plurality of locations for each of any number of iterations:
a) selecting a particular location of the second plurality of locations;b) creating a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of precipitation at the particular location based on the occurrences of precipitation at the first plurality of locations and one or more probabilistic estimates describing the occurrence of precipitation at one or more other locations of the second plurality of locations;c) updating the one or more probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of precipitation at the one or more other locations of the second plurality of locations based on the probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of precipitation at the particular location;determining whether, during a particular iteration, one or more values changed by more than a threshold value;in response to determining that one or more values changed by more than the threshold value, performing a next iteration;in response to determining that the one or more values did not change by more that the threshold value, aggregating the probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of precipitation at the second plurality of locations into the one or more precipitation occurrence fields; using digitally programmed logic in an intensity estimation module of the weather computer, creating and storing in the precipitation database one or more precipitation intensity fields by:
for each location of the second plurality of locations:creating and storing one or more data values that describe relationships between an intensity of precipitation at the location and an intensity of precipitation at one or more other locations of the second plurality of locations;creating and storing one or more distributions of the intensity of precipitation at the location, including digitally constraining the distributions by the intensity of precipitation at the one or more other locations of the second plurality of locations and/or the data values representing the intensity of precipitation at the first plurality of locations;extracting one or more data values representing probabilistic estimates for intensity based on the one or more data values that describe relationships and the one or more distributions of the intensity of precipitation at the location;aggregating the extracted one or more data values into the one or more precipitation intensity fields; using digitally programmed logic in a climate estimating module, creating and digitally storing final estimates for precipitation occurrence and intensity at one or more locations of the second plurality of locations based on the one or more precipitation occurrence fields and the one or more precipitation intensity fields.