| 摘要 |
A method of estimating a number of persons gathering at an Area of Interest (107) during a time interval on a day, wherein said Area of Interest (107) is defined by an Area of Interest center and an Area of Interest radius and is covered by a mobile telecommunication network (105) having a plurality of communication stations (105a) each of which adapted to manage communications of user equipment in one or more served areas (105b) in a covered geographic region (300; 300') over which the mobile telecommunication network (105) extends, the method comprising the steps of: a) subdividing the covered geographic region (300; 300') in a plurality of surface elements (205); b) defining (604) a plurality of calculated radius values of the Area of interest radius, and, for each calculated radius value: c) identifying (606) a number of relevant surface elements (505a-d) of the covered geographic region (300; 300') comprised within the Area of interest; d) computing (610; 612) a first number of User Equipment served by the mobile communication network (105)during the time interval on the day within the Area of Interest (107) based on aggregated data regarding a usage of the mobile communication network (105); e) computing (614; 616) a second number of User Equipment served by the mobile communication network (105) during the time interval for each day of a predetermined number of previous days preceding the day within the Area of Interest (107) based on the aggregated data regarding the usage of the mobile communication network (105); f) combining (618, 620) the first number of User Equipment and the second numbers of User Equipment for obtaining a statistical quantity; g) computing a normalized statistical quantity by normalizing (622) the statistical quantity with respect to the radii of the relevant served areas (505a-d); h) computing (630) an optimum radius value of the Area of Interest radius as the average of the calculated radius values weighted by the normalized statistical quantity; i) estimating (632-646) a number of persons gathering within the Area of Interest (107) having the Area of Interest radius equal to the optimum radius value. In one embodiment of the invention, the aggregated data regarding a usage of the mobile communication network (105) comprise a number of served User Equipment traffic load, number of voice calls, number of SMS transmitted and/or volume of binary data exchanged within preferably each one of the communication stations (105a) of the mobile communication network (105). |
