SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR PHYSICALLY BASED FORECASTING OF CHANGMA ONSET

摘要

The present invention relates to a system and a method to estimate physical statistics of an onset rainy season, focusing on physical phenomena influencing interannual variability of onset rainy season date and using temperature of a sea surface in the spring, which is boundary forcing related thereto. The present invention provides the estimation system comprising: a related area selection unit selecting areas having a correlation coefficient equal to or greater than a predetermined criterion with an onset rainy season index; a database construction unit defining relation elements, constructing a database using a selected onset rainy season date and the related areas; an anterior factor combining unit cross-checking the defined relation elements to search for an anterior factor combination with high estimation rate; a plurality of regression estimation model constructing unit constructing the plurality of regression estimation model using the determined anterior factors; and a physical process analyzing unit analyzing a physical process where each of the anterior factors influence the onset rainy season date. The present invention is able to stably and reliably estimate the onset rainy season date using a temperature data of the sea surface during the spring.