| 摘要 |
The invention relates to geophysics, in particular to short-term prediction of earthquakes in a seismically active region based on variation of atmospheric pressure above the earthquake focus. The existing seismic-synoptic short-term earthquake prediction method associates the influence of atmospheric variability on the Earth seismicity as a trigger effect of atmospheric circulation in occurrence of earthquakes. In this case, prediction of earthquake time, place and magnitude remains indefinite, since signs of a short-term precursor are absent. For higher reliability of short-term prediction of an intense earthquake, based on atmospheric pressure measurement results, a barometric cyclone of elliptic shape is recorded on the isobaric map, the cyclone reflecting the size of the seismic zone focus, allowing to determinie the geographic location of the epicentre (hypocentre) of the future earthquake from the intersection point of two axes of the ellipse, the earthquake energy M=Rfrom the size of the major axis of the ellipse (R), and to determine the time of onset of the earthquake from the section of disappearance of periodicity of lunar-solar atmospheric pressure waves on the atmospheric pressure-time curve. |
