PREDICTION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILRE OF MACHINE COMPONENTS

摘要

The invention relates to a method for determining the probability of failure P of a machine component which is cyclically loaded in operation with a geometry &OHgr; up to a time t0. The cracking under cyclical loading is considered as a spatially-discrete and time-discrete event and is modelled by means of a Poisson point process on the basis of a hazard approach. Thus the invention offers a possibility for quantifying a probability of failure of a machine component at a selectable time, such that the probability of failure can be taken into consideration for operation and maintenance of the machine.