| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a forecasting system and a forecasting method which forecast an overflow water amount, an overflow electric power amount, and an average possible electric power amount in a hydraulic power plant.SOLUTION: A water flow amount is forecast by a multiple regression model using explanatory variables caused by the amount of refuse on the basis of the understanding that an overflow water amount has a relationship with an amount of refuse in the vicinity of a water intake port used for power generation. Specifically, the water inflow amount and the generated power amount (water intake amount) are used as the explanatory variables caused by the amount of the refuse with an attention focused on the fact that the amount of the refuse conveyed is increased according to the water flow amount into a water reservoir and also that the amount of the overflow water is increased according to the generated power amount (water intake amount) because the water becomes the overflow stream when taken by the intake port 2 without being used for the power generation due to the influence of the refuse. A forecasting value of the water overflow amount is calculated by the forecasting value of the water inflow amount and the forecasting value of the generated power amount. |
