Continuous value-per-click estimation for low-volume terms

摘要

An estimated conversion rate for a desired advertisement term is calculated. A total number of conversion events for terms having a conversion rate is determined for each of a plurality of conversion rates, and data is generated that describes a first distribution function representing the conversion rates and the associated numbers of conversion rates. Additionally, data describing a second distribution function representing the probability of a given number of conversion events occurring is also generated. Based at least in part on the first distribution function and the second distribution function, the estimated conversion rate for the desired advertisement term is computed.

主权项

1. A computer-implemented method performed by an analysis server, the method comprising:
performing, by a computer processor of the analysis server, the following:
accessing statistics for a set of terms relevant to advertisements, the statistics obtained from a plurality of advertising publisher computer systems over a computer network via application programming interfaces (APIs) of the plurality of advertising publisher computer systems, the statistics comprising numbers of conversion events associated with the terms based on actions of a plurality of users in response to display of advertisements associated with the terms on client devices of the users;receiving a budget amount over the computer network from a computer system of an advertiser for given terms, the budget amount representing what the advertiser is willing to pay for the given terms;determining numbers of term conversion events for a plurality of conversion rates, using the accessed statistics;generating first data representing a distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates;generating second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion events occurring;computing an estimated conversion rate for a first one of the given terms using the first data representing the distribution of the term conversion events over the plurality of conversion rates and the second data representing probabilities of given numbers of conversion rates occurring;computing, using the computed estimated conversion rate and the budget amount provided by the advertiser computer system, a bid price for an advertiser to submit to the advertising publisher computer systems over the computer network for an advertisement relevant to the first given term; andautomatically providing the bid price to the computer system of the advertiser over the computer network for submission to one or more of the advertising publisher computer systems.