METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR RESERVOIR HISTORY MATCHING FOR IMPROVED ESTIMATION OF RESERVOIR PERFORMANCE

摘要

The present disclosure presents methods and apparatuses for forecasting geological formation production data. For example, some example methods include identifying an array of parameter sets, determining a fitting error between a first set of the historical production data and modeled production data, wherein the modeled production data is obtained through execution of a simulation model based on each parameter set of the array, determining a validation error between a second set of the historical production data and extrapolated production data for each parameter set of the array, determining a combined error for each parameter set of the array based on the fitting error and the validation error, and identifying an optimal parameter set size for modeling the target geological region, wherein the optimal parameter set size is determined in reference to a minimum combined error of the combined errors determined for each parameter set of the array.

主权项

1. A method of determining a geological model, comprising the acts of:
identifying an array of parameter sets, wherein each parameter set is of a unique size and contains values of geological parameters estimated from historical production data associated with a target geological region; determining a fitting error between a first set of the historical production data and modeled production data, wherein the modeled production data is obtained through execution of a simulation model based on each parameter set of the array; determining a validation error between a second set of the historical production data and extrapolated production data for each parameter set of the array, wherein the extrapolated production data is obtained based on the modeled production data for the respective parameter set of the array; determining a combined error for each parameter set of the array based on the fitting error and the validation error; and identifying an optimal parameter set size for modeling the target geological region, wherein the optimal parameter set size is determined in reference to a minimum combined error of the combined errors determined for each parameter set of the array.