METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING THE PROGRESS AND COMPLETION OF A PROJECT BASED ON A BAYESIAN NETWORK

摘要

A method for projecting the progress of a project, the project including work items, the method including: obtaining starting state transition probabilities for the work items in a first time interval; obtaining starting populations of the work items, wherein the starting populations of the work items include states of the work items at the beginning of the first time interval; determining expected distributions for the work item states at the end of the first time interval by using the starting state transition probabilities and the starting populations; identifying actual states for the work items at the end of the first time interval; determining actual state transition rates of the work items for the first time interval by using the starting populations and the actual states; and determining expected future state transition probabilities for the work items by using the starting state transition probabilities and the actual state transition rates.

主权项

1. A method for projecting the progress of a project, over one or more time intervals, the project including a plurality of work items, the method comprising:
obtaining starting state transition probabilities for the work items in a first time interval; obtaining starting populations of the work items, wherein the starting populations of the work items include states of the work items at the beginning of the first time interval; determining expected distributions for the work item states at the end of the first time interval by using the starting state transition probabilities and the starting populations; identifying actual states for the work items at the end of the first time interval; determining actual state transition rates of the work items for the first time interval by using the starting populations and the actual states; and determining expected future state transition probabilities for the work items by using the starting state transition probabilities and the actual state transition rates.