EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION DEVICE

摘要

An earthquake prediction device comprises a predicted value calculation unit 16 that calculates, from a prediction formula below, a predicted value (MMIap) indicating a predicted intensity of a ground motion on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, using a maximum acceleration value (Aumax), which is a maximum absolute value among absolute values of vertical acceleration component of the ground motion, after a sensor starts detecting the ground motion caused by an earthquake. The prediction formula is: MMIap=αalog10(Aumax)+βa.

主权项

1. An earthquake prediction device comprising:
a vertical acceleration acquisition unit that sequentially acquires vertical acceleration information indicating a vertical acceleration component of a ground motion from a sensor that detects the ground motion, when the sensor starts detecting the ground motion; a predicted value calculation unit that calculates a predicted value (MMIap) indicating an intensity of earthquake shaking by an index value on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, using a maximum absolute value among absolute values of vertical acceleration component of the ground motion indicated by the vertical acceleration information sequentially acquired by the vertical acceleration acquisition unit as a maximum acceleration value (Aumax), using a prediction formula below: the prediction formula: MMIap=αalog10(Aumax)+βa+γa wherein αa and βa are regression coefficients calculated in advance by regression analysis, and an adjustment factor γa is adjustable between −1 and 1; and an adjustment factor setting unit that adjusts the adjustment factor (γa).