Predicting Swing Buyers in Marketing Campaigns

摘要

In a marketing campaign, an individual whom we market to may be a swing buyer, a self buyer, or a non-persuadable non-buyer. A cost effective marketing strategy may focus on the swing buyers, who make a purchase when treated by the marketing campaign and do not purchase the product otherwise. Utilizing a randomized test and control data set including individuals randomly divided between a treatment group and a control group, three methods for predicting swing customers in a marketing campaign are proposed. One such method includes developing a first model corresponding to a likelihood that a member of control group is a buyer of the product, developing a second model corresponding to the likelihood that a non-buyer of the product is a member of control group, and determining a score corresponding to the likelihood that an individual is a swing buyer, using the first model and the second model.

主权项

1. A method comprising:
determining, by a computer device, a first model corresponding to a first likelihood that a member of a control group is a buyer of a product based on a plurality of observations corresponding to the control group; determining, by the computer device, a second model corresponding to a second likelihood that a non-buyer of the product belongs to the control group; and determining, by the computer device, a score corresponding to a probability that a customer is a swing buyer, the score determined using the first model and the second model.