WEATHER PREDICTION ERROR ANALYSIS SYSTEM AND WEATHER PREDICTION ERROR METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To determine the accuracy of weather prediction information.SOLUTION: A weather prediction error analysis system according to the present embodiment comprises: acquisition means for acquiring weather observation data; arithmetic means for calculating the prediction value of physical quantity pertaining to a specific weather phenomenon on the basis of the weather observation data and in accordance with a weather model; storage means for storing a conditional probability table representing conditional probability in the dependency relation of a plurality of weather determination elements with respect to the distribution of errors in the prediction value of physical quantity; determination means for determining each of the plurality of weather determination elements on the basis of the weather observation data and the prediction value of physical quantity; and calculation means for calculating error probability distribution with regard to the prediction value of physical quantity on the basis of the determination result of each of the determined weather determination elements and in accordance with the conditional probability table.