Method and device for determining a prediction quality for a predicted energy consumption of a motor vehicle

摘要

A method and a device determine a prediction quality for a predicted energy consumption of a motor vehicle. By determining a prediction quality, a tolerance band is calculated in addition to the predicted driving profile. The prediction quality provides a statement about the entire route as to whether a driver remains in a tolerance band that is based on stochastic evaluation and is naturally occurring. As long as the driver remains in the predicted tolerance band of the driving profile during the real drive, no re-calculation or change of the operating strategy is necessary. Fuel consumption is minimized using the predictive operating strategy on the specified distance.

主权项

1. A method for determining a prediction quality about a predicted energy consumption of a motor vehicle, the method comprising:
defining a plurality of maneuvers for the vehicle, each maneuver having an associated input speed and an associated output speed; repeatedly performing each maneuver by a driver of the vehicle to obtain a plurality of speed values or a plurality of change of speed values, each speed value representing an average vehicle speed during a performance of the maneuver, each change of speed value representing an average change of speed during a performance of the maneuver; for each maneuver, obtaining an average value by averaging the plurality of speed values or the plurality of change of speed values; for each maneuver, continuing to repeatedly perform the maneuver until a statistically meaningful average value for speed or change of speed is obtained; for each maneuver, computing a tolerance range for the speed value or the change of speed value, the tolerance range being defined by a maximum expected average speed or acceleration during the maneuver and by a minimum expected average speed or acceleration during the maneuver; selecting a chosen route from a plurality of predetermined routes defined in a data record, each predetermined route having a plurality of route segments; assigning a maneuver to each segment of the chosen route such that a plurality of maneuvers are assigned to the chosen route; predicting energy consumption for the chosen route by adding, for each maneuver assigned to the chosen route, a predicted energy consumption of the vehicle determined using a respective statistically meaningful average value for speed or change of speed; and computing a tolerance band for energy consumption, the tolerance band being defined by a maximum and a minimum expected energy consumption, the maximum expected energy consumption being determined by adding, for each maneuver assigned to the chosen route, a predicted energy consumption of the vehicle determined using the maximum expected average speed or acceleration, the minimum expected energy consumption being determined by adding, for each maneuver assigned to the chosen route, a predicted energy consumption of the vehicle determined using the minimum expected average speed or acceleration, wherein deviations within and/or between different maneuvers are compensated by using the formula for the Gaussian error propagation.