SYSTEMS, METHODS AND COMPUTER PROGRAM PRODUCTS FOR MODELING UNCERTAIN FUTURE BENEFITS

摘要

Systems, methods and computer program products are provided for modeling future benefits. According to the method, modeling future benefits begins by defining a growth rate for the good for each time segment of a period of time, where the period of time includes a plurality of time segments. An uncertainty for the good is then determined for each time segment. Next, a benefit distribution is determined at an end of each time segment based upon the growth rate and uncertainty for the respective time segment. Finally, a benefit value is selected at the end of each time segment by randomly selecting each benefit value based upon a respective benefit distribution to thereby model future benefits over the period of time. The method therefore allows the growth rate and/or the uncertainty to very between time segments. The method can also account for contingencies at the end of previous time segments.