METHOD, DEVICE, AND PROGRAM FOR PREREADING AMOUNT OF SOLAR RADIATION

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To precisely predict an amount of solar radiation on next day or the day after next, by using a forecast value of a numerical forecast model. SOLUTION: The forecast data of past thirty days coming from a numerical forecast model (10) is accumulated in an accumulation device (12), and an observation value of an amount of global solar radiation for the period is accumulated in an accumulation device (14). A device for calculating predicted sun position (16) calculates sun's position on a forecast day and time at a prediction object point. A device for calculating an amount of global solar radiation in fair weather (18) calculates the amount of global solar radiation in fair weather from a past forecast value. A device for calculating fair weather index (20) calculates a fair weather index by dividing the observation value of the amount of global solar radiation with the amount of global solar radiation in fair weather. A device for calculating prediction factor (22) determines a prediction factor of a prediction formula representing a relationship between past forecast value and fair weather index. Using devices (24-32), the forecast value of a prediction day and time from the numerical forecast model (10) is applied to the prediction formula to predict the amount of global solar radiation in the prediction day and time. COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&INPIT