METHOD OF VALUATION OF GEOLOGICAL ASSET OR INFORMATION RELATING THERETO IN THE PRESENCE OF UNCERTAINTIES

摘要

Methods are disclosed for assigning a value to a geological asset or information relating thereto in the presence of private and public sources of uncertainties. The private and public uncertainties associated with a geological asset or information associated therewith are defined, and private uncertainties are assigned a subjective probability representing the best state of knowledge currently available. A multi-dimensional valuation-time lattice is constructed using the subjective probabilities for the private uncertainties and using risk-neutral probabilities for the public uncertainties. A backward recursion through the multi-dimensional lattice is performed in order to generate a present value for the asset given the present information available. During the backward recursion, a tally of delta hedging coefficients is generated and stored in order to provide an operational "map" or "decision pathway" should the project move forward.