| 摘要 |
A device for estimating the operation states of individual electrical devices has a total power use measurement means (5), a temporal variation calculation means (6a) for calculating temporal variation (jump power) in total power use, an electrical device type specification means (6b) for adding a device to an existing device type list as a new electrical device or removing an extra device type on the basis of the jump power, a correspondence likelihood estimation means (6c) for estimating the likelihoods that an upward or downward jump corresponds to the switching on or off of electrical devices, and a means (6d) for estimating the operation states of individual electrical devices that estimates changes in the operation states of individual electrical devices when likelihoods are input, updates current operation state estimates, uses the current operation state estimates and a standard power estimation result to optimize estimations of the device types, standard powers, and operation states of the individual electrical devices on the basis of a predicted total power usage value and the measurement data for the total power usage, and dynamically estimates the operation probabilities of the individual electrical devices. |
