Traffic impact prediction for multiple event planning

摘要

Embodiments relate to traffic impact prediction in a transportation network. Link level background traffic demand in a transportation network may be estimated based on information about available routes, and based on expected background traffic volumes between origins and destinations. A background traffic flow model that optimizes a background flow of the expected background traffic volumes among the available routes to minimize a sum of background congestion costs, background path entropy, and errors between an observed background traffic flow and the optimized background flow may be applied. Alternative routes may be identified based on the available routes and event based control plans. Expected additional event based traffic volumes may be received. A link level total traffic demand in the transportation network may be estimated based on the expected additional event based traffic volumes, the identified alternative routes, and the estimated background traffic demand.

主权项

1. A method of traffic impact prediction, the method comprising:
estimating a link level background traffic demand in a transportation network, the estimating the link level background traffic demand including:
receiving information about available routes in the transportation network;receiving expected background traffic volumes between origins and destinations in the transportation network; andapplying a background traffic flow model that optimizes a background flow of the expected background traffic volumes among the available routes to minimize a sum of background congestion costs, background path entropy, and errors between an observed background traffic flow and the optimized background flow; identifying alternative routes for at least a subset of the estimated link level background traffic demand, the identifying based on the available routes in the transportation network and event based control plans; receiving expected additional event based traffic volumes between the origins and the destinations in the transportation network; estimating a link level total traffic demand in the transportation network based on the expected additional event based traffic volumes, the identified alternative routes, and the estimated link level background traffic demand; and setting signal cycles of traffic signals in the transportation network based on the estimated link level total traffic demand.