Electronic Trading System Utilizing User-Customized Implied Probability Distributions and Graphical User Interface for Same

摘要

Computer-implemented methods and systems, including a user interface, that (a) calculate and display a graphical representation of a market implied probability distribution for the future prices of a tradable asset, which is derived from real time prices of the options on the asset, (b) permit the user to customize the market implied probability distribution graph to reflect the user's own view on the probability that the future price of the asset will be within a price range, and (c) propose an optimal trading strategy implemented as a combination of option orders, which strategy is optimized to be profitable assuming the customized probability distribution (if any). The combination orders may be modified and/or added to by the user.

主权项

1. A computer-implemented method for applying implied probability distributions to generate user customizable electronic orders, the method comprising:
electronically receiving prices of options on an underlying asset from one or more electronic data providers; computing, using one or more processors and based on the option prices, a market implied probability distribution of the price for the underlying asset as of a future date; displaying the market implied probability distribution (MIPD) on a graphical user interface of a user computing device; receiving a user input from the graphical user interface, the user input modifying at least a portion of the MIPD; generating, using one or more processors, a customized probability distribution (CPD) based on the user input; displaying the CPD; generating, using one or more processors, one or more trading strategies based on the CPD, the trading strategies including multiple component trades; presenting the one or more trading strategies to the user; receiving a selection of one of the trading strategies; and initiating electronic orders to one or more electronic marketplaces for the component trades of the selected strategy.