Systems and methods for estimating a remaining useful life of an item

摘要

Systems and methods are disclosed for more accurately estimating a remaining useful life (RUL) of an item. The RUL of the item is estimated by determining probability values throughout a time period. Each probability value quantifies a probability that a failure event of the item will occur by a time in a time segment of the time period. Based on the probability values, the particular time segment in which the failure event is most likely to occur is determined. Once the particular time segment is determined, the presentation of a visual representation of at least a portion of the time period can be effected. The visual representation indicates that the failure event of the item is most likely to occur during the particular time segment.

主权项

1. A method, comprising:
receiving sensor data from sensors operably associated with an item; determining, by a computing device comprising a processor, based at least in part on the sensor data, a plurality of probability values associated with a future time period comprising a plurality of time segments, each probability value corresponding to a different time segment of the plurality of time segments and quantifying a probability that a failure event of the item will occur by a time in the different time segment; determining, by the computing device, a particular time segment of the plurality of time segments in which the failure event has a greatest likelihood to occur based on the plurality of probability values by:
calculating a first derivative of the plurality of probability values with respect to time:calculating a second derivative of the plurality of probability values with respect to time; andidentifying a knee that corresponds to the particular time segment in which the failure event is most likely to occur from the first derivative and the second derivative; and effecting, by the computing device, presentation of a visual representation of at least a portion of the future time period, wherein the visual representation indicates that the failure event of the item has a greatest likelihood to occur during the particular time segment.