RAPID ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING RISKS

摘要

Apparatus and methods described herein may rapidly identify emerging risks that may impact an entity. Methods may update and identify emerging risks on a frequent basis. Using an electronic form, information may be collected from a filtered set of experts. The set of experts may be “filtered” based on the emerging risk and a scope of the emerging risk. The information may include the experts' responses to a set of questions. The information may include values on absolute scales. The information may be analyzed to determine variation in the responses of the experts. The information may be aggregated across a plurality of emerging risks and across a plurality of lines-of-business. Based on the information, a convergence point may be determined. The convergence point may identify a time at which a combined impact of each of the plurality of emerging risks exceeds a risk threshold of an entity.

主权项

1. A method for assessing an emerging risk associated with a line-of-business (“LOB”), the method comprising:
identifying a first group of experts to assess a first emerging risk; generating a first questionnaire based on the first group of experts and the first emerging risk; based on responses provided by the first group of experts to the first questionnaire:
plotting, along a time axis, a projected materialization associated with the first emerging risk;plotting, along a cost axis, a projected monetary loss associated with the first emerging risk; identifying a second group of experts to assess a second emerging risk; generating a second questionnaire based on the second group of experts and the second emerging risk; based on responses provided by the second group of experts to the second questionnaire:
plotting, along the time axis, a projected materialization associated with the second emerging risk;plotting, along the cost axis, a projected monetary loss associated with the second emerging risk; calculating a convergence point at which:
a combined monetary loss associated with the first and second emerging risks is above a threshold loss; anda period of time until the projected materialization of the first and second emerging risks is less than a threshold time period.