| 摘要 |
In general, in one aspect, a method for developing an asset by competition includes specifying standards for an asset, receiving from potential contestants indicia of interest in participating in an asset development competition in which the contestants compete to develop an asset, and determining an estimated likelihood that the asset development competition will result in an asset that meets the minimum standards based on historical information about the performance of the contestants from whom the indicia of interest were received. Steps may be taken to increase the estimated likelihood of success, upon a determination that the likelihood is less than desired. Steps may be taken to prevent registration by additional participants, upon a determination that the estimated likelihood is at or above a predetermined threshold. |
| 主权项 |
1. A computer implemented method for estimating a likelihood of developing and submitting an asset by contestants in a competition, the computer implemented method comprising:
specifying minimum standards for the asset; receiving, from a number of the contestants, indicia of interest in participating in the competition, wherein the indicia of interest comprises at least a registration of each of the contestants to the competition; receiving ratings for each of the contestants from previous submissions for the asset; calculating, by a hardware processor, an average rating from the received ratings; calculating, by the hardware processor, a competition factor as a square root of an addition between a summed squared volatility of the ratings for each of the contestants and a variance of the ratings of the contestants from the average rating; estimating, by the hardware processor, a win probability from an error function used in integrating a normal distribution function; calculating, by the hardware processor, an expected rank for each of the contestants using the win probability; calculating, by the hardware processor, an expected performance for each of the contestants using the expected rank for each of the contestants and an inverse of the normal distribution function; calculating, by the hardware processor, an actual performance for each of the contestants using an actual rank for each of the contestants and the inverse of the normal distribution function; calculating, by the hardware processor, a performed as rating for each of the contestants by adding an old rating from the previous submissions to a mathematical product between the competition factor and a difference between the actual performance and the expected performance; calculating, by the hardware processor, a weight of the competition for each of the contestants from a number of times each of the contestants have been rated before, and adjusting said weight of the competition for each of the contestants by a first percentage when the ratings for each of the contestants fall within a first interval and by a second percentage when the ratings for each of the contestants exceed the first interval; calculating, by the hardware processor, a new updated rating for each of the contestants by multiplying the weight of the competition for each of the contestants and the performed as rating; estimating, by the hardware processor, a likelihood of at least one of the contestants developing and submitting the asset that meets the minimum standards, based on the number of the contestants from whom the indicia of interest were received and a determination of the new updated rating for at least one of the contestants being higher than a predetermined percentile; specifying, by the hardware processor, a completion threshold representing a minimum acceptable estimated likelihood that the competition will successfully complete; and, upon determining that the estimated likelihood does not meet the completion threshold, taking one or more steps to increase the estimated likelihood. |
