METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON REAL OPTION ANALYSIS FOR URBAN FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGES

摘要

According to the present invention provides, a real option-based investment determination method to improve an urban flood control system includes: a step of calculating the current value of benefits from alternatives to improve an urban flood control system; a step of calculating variability of the value of the urban flood control system from previous flood damage data; and a step of calculating the value of an execution time strategy of the alternatives as the value of a call option calculated by a real option scheme having the variability calculated using the current value of the benefits of each alternative as a basic asset and the delay time until the actual execution time of each alternative as a maturity for each of the alternatives.