| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and system for predicting intensity of principal motion of an earthquake, capable of predicting the intensity of S-waves at high accuracy even in a case of an earthquake having various P-wave arrival forms by changing prediction expressions according to time course of the P-waves.SOLUTION: The prediction method of the intensity of principal seismic motion includes: preliminarily, calculating a relational expression of a maximum value of observation waveforms of P-waves and a maximum value of observation waveforms of S-waves till an elapsed time on a lapse ratio (an elapsed time from a P-wave arrival detection time to a prediction time/a duration time of P-waves) of a plurality of P-waves at respective earthquake measurement sites in a plurality of pieces of earthquake data occurring in the past; after an on-site seismometer detects an arrival of P-waves, predicting duration of the P-waves and then continuously measuring the P-waves; and predicting the intensity of S-waves to be arrived from the maximum value of the observation waveforms of the observed P-waves sequentially observed till reaching the lapse ratio in the plurality of lapse ratios of the P-waves and the relational expression. |
