Maintenance planning and failure prediction from data observed within a time window

摘要

A system for predicting a failure of equipment from prior maintenance data of the equipment collected during a time duration estimate a number of preceding failures of the equipment prior to the time duration. The system constructs a model, based on the prior maintenance data, of an impact of an external intervention on a failure of the equipment. The system constructs a model, based on the constructed model of the impact of the external intervention and the estimated number of preceding failures, of a replacement policy of the equipment and a probability of a subsequent failure of the equipment in a subsequent time period.

主权项

1. A system for predicting a failure of equipment from prior maintenance data of the equipment collected during a time duration, the system comprising:
a computing system that includes at least one memory device and at least one processor coupled to said at least one memory device, wherein said computing system is configured to perform:
estimating a number of preceding failures of the equipment prior to the time duration;calculating a probability that no failure of the equipment has occurred during the time duration, a probability that exactly one failure of the equipment but no replacement of the equipment has occurred during the time duration, a probability that there has been only one failure of the equipment followed by a replacement of the equipment during the time duration, a probability that there has been multiple failures and replacements of the equipment during the time duration;modeling, based on the prior maintenance data and the calculated probabilities, an impact of an intervention on a failure of the equipment; andmodeling, based on the modeled impact of the intervention and the estimated number of preceding failures and the calculated probabilities, a replacement policy of the equipment and a probability of a subsequent failure of the equipment in a subsequent time period.