MODELING THE LONG-TERM EVOLUTION OF SPACE DEBRIS

摘要

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

主权项

1. A method performed by a computing system for simulating interaction of objects in orbit during a simulation period, the objects having orbital parameters, the method comprising, for each of a plurality of simulation times during the simulation period,
for each object, generating a position for that object at that simulation time based on the orbital parameters; and for each pair of objects, performing a collision analysis by:
determining a distance between the pair of objects based on the generated positions; andwhen a local minimum distance between the pair of objects has been reached at the simulation times,
generating an actual local minimum distance between the pair of objects by interpolating a time of the local minimum distance and calculating the position of the pair of objects at that time; andwhen the actual local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion,
creating new objects representing debris resulting from collision of the pair of objects; andgenerating orbital parameters for the new objects and indicating that the pair of objects are no longer in orbit.