SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR USE IN DETERMINING VALUE-AT-RISK

摘要

A process is provided, that facilitates the use of value-at-risk analysis in industries with dynamic market data. The method utilizes past market data to estimate future market parameters. The method includes identifying and removing seasonal patterns from said past market data and normalizing deseasonalized market data with a repeated method of replacing large outliers with mean values. Outliers and normalized data are then grouped separately. Forecasts of normalized future market data and forecasts of future outlier patterns are then determined from said separate groups. In this way parameters used for value-at-risk analysis can be accurately estimated, leading to precise value-at-risk-analysis results.