| 摘要 |
The present invention relates to an objective method to focus on a physical phenomenon affecting interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation and to predict East Asian monsoon precipitation by using surface sea temperature (SST), which is a correlated boundary force. A prediction system comprises an EOF analysis unit, which performs EOF analysis of East Asia and determines air mass arrangement correlated to July monsoon precipitation and a front; an area selecting unit, which shows a correlation map of global sea surface temperatures by a diagram and selects a high correlation area by using preceding three time series from the EOF analysis; a time determining unit, which determines four areas and a time physically correlated to East Asian monsoon among high correlation areas; and a prediction factor re-determination unit, which re-determines a prediction factor in order to predict East Asian July precipitation; and a statistical model building unit, which builds a statistical model by using a multiple regression equation. |
