ESTABLISHING AVAILABILITY OF A TWO-ENGINE AIRCRAFT FOR AN ETOPS FLIGHT OR AN ETOPS FLIGHT PATH FOR A TWO-ENGINE AIRCRAFT

摘要

A method is provided for establishing availability of a two-engine aircraft for a predefined ETOPS flight. The method may include calculating a probability of a dual independent engine shutdown sequence for each of a climb phase, a plurality of cruise phases including an ETOPS phase, and a descent phase into which the predefined ETOPS flight is divisible. The shutdown sequence may be composed of events that for each phase may include events having respective, conditional probabilities specific to a model of the two-engine aircraft, a product of which is the probability of the shutdown sequence for the respective phase. The method may include calculating the risk of the shutdown sequence as a function of a sum of the probabilities for the phases, and establishing availability of the aircraft based on the risk and a preexisting baseline. A similar method is provided for establishing availability of an ETOPS flight path.

主权项

1. A method of establishing availability of a two-engine aircraft for a predefined ETOPS flight, the method comprising:
calculating a probability of a dual independent engine shutdown sequence for each of a climb phase, a plurality of cruise phases including an ETOPS phase, and a descent phase into which the predefined ETOPS flight is divisible, the dual independent engine shutdown sequence being composed of a sequence of events that for each phase includes events having respective, conditional probabilities specific to a model of the two-engine aircraft, a product of the conditional probabilities for a phase being the probability of the shutdown sequence for the phase; calculating a risk of the dual independent engine shutdown sequence during the predefined ETOPS flight as a function of a sum of the probabilities for the phases; and establishing availability of the two-engine aircraft for the predefined ETOPS flight based on the risk and a preexisting baseline.