| 摘要 |
FIELD: measurement equipment.SUBSTANCE: invention refers hydrometeorology and can be used to forecast floods and storm tides in sea reaches. Essence: archive of floods (date-level) for maximal possible period is created. Archive of surface atmospheric pressure fields by time data (for two terms) in the region of cyclonic storm formation above a sea reach is created. Flood recurrence for all months of a year is calculated. According to the flood recurrence value, two periods of the year are identified: a flood period (recurrence over 1%) and a non-flood period. A flood in the latter period is considered to be a rare event, so a conclusion that a flood situation will not occur is made automatically. For every month of the flood period, the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) for the whole of the archive on time-based observations of surface atmospheric pressure fields are determined. Then empirical orthogonal components (EOC) are calculated for every month of the flood period. The range of three first EOC from minimal to maximal values are identified for the dates of flooding for every month of the flood period, EOC reference zone for every month is formed. Afterwards basing on the results of real-time hydrodynamic forecast of the surface atmospheric pressure field the EOC are calculated according to the previously created EOF for this month. Belonging of the forecast field EOC to the EOC reference zone of floods for the forecast month is identified. Conclusion is made whether the flood situation will or will not occur within the analysed forecast term.EFFECT: longer forecast time interval. |
